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中东局势支撑油价 WTI原油涨0.29%

www.rf-millenium.com2019-07-16
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周二美国东部收盘时,纽约商品交易所八月交割的轻质原油期货价格上涨0.17美元,收于每桶57.83美元,涨幅为0.29%。 9月交割的伦敦布伦特原油期货小幅上涨0.05美元,收于每桶64.16美元,涨幅为0.08%。此外,前一交易日原油期货1908合约收跌1.60%至437.20元/桶。

就新闻而言,伊朗与美国的关系日益激烈。伊朗原子能组织(AEOI)发言人Behrouz Kamalvandi 8日表示,伊朗的浓缩铀浓度达到4.5%,进一步超过伊拉克。核协议中规定的3.67%。他提出了60天的警告,如果伊朗核协议仍无法维持伊朗的原因,伊朗将把浓缩铀的丰度提高到20%。

尽管供应紧缩和地缘政治问题支撑了市场,但全球贸易形势已经打压了全球经济增长的前景。数据显示,日本的核心机械订单在八个月内跌幅最大,表明全球贸易紧张局势正在影响企业投资,日本是世界第四大原油用户。在欧洲,经济学家的最新调查显示,英国经济可能在2012年第二季度首次出现萎缩。英国央行行长卡尼上周警告称,全球贸易紧张局势以及未能同意离开欧盟的威胁正在增加,增加了经济增长的下行风险。

Petromatrix分析师Olivier Jakob表示,“目前的原油市场疲软。一般来说,市场参与者发现市场相当平衡,似乎并不担心任何潜在的供应中断。“

Analysts at Texas-based Drillinginfo believe that oil prices may continue to consolidate within the range of $56-60/barrel as the market is digesting the tension between tensions in the Middle East and insufficient growth in global demand. These two major issues are unlikely to be resolved quickly. The recent range of oil price fluctuations and the broader range of $50-64/barrel will be a possible range of WTI crude oil until the problem is resolved later this year.

In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in the short-term energy outlook that US crude oil production in 2019 is forecast to be 12.36 million barrels per day, up from the 12.32 million barrels expected in June. The 2020 production is estimated at 13.26 million barrels per day. In 2019, WTI is expected to be $59.58 per barrel, compared to the previous forecast of $59.29 per barrel. WTI prices are expected to remain at $63/barrel in 2020. In 2019, the price of Brent crude oil was US$66.51 per barrel, which was previously expected to be US$66.69 per barrel.

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(Article source: Oriental Fortune Securities Research Institute)

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